Thursday, June 6, 2013

A632.1.4.RB - Multistage Decision-Making

I somewhat agree with the dynamic programming method explained in the book. There are some industries and fields where this type of decision making is commonplace, and there are some that feel lost just looking at the equations involved with it. My decision making style is different, and even though I enjoy using data and calculating risk, I like to have some variability and flexibility in my decisions when dealing with multistage decision-making. I feel that too many variables play a part in decisions and very few things stay constant. It appears that dynamic programming counts on the future to be constant predictable, when in my industry and workplace it’s ever-changing.
                                        
I think that this method forces people to look at the decision-making process differently and tap into other areas that may not get as much consideration when planning. I think there are a lot of managers out there that use a form of this equation, they may just call it something different or use it in another manner or application. I feel that it wouldn't quite help me in my decision-making process because of the emphasis that I place on flexibility and using experience and intuition as drivers.

Dynamic programming would have more of an impact on business decisions than personal decisions. The values we place on certain things and events cannot be taken into consideration when using this tool. I feel like the long-term effects on planning are good in a business sense, as they take probability and risk into account, and the answers to questions could be simplified as long as these numbers are accurate. Again, this process looks interesting but does not suit my personal style. I take decisions one step at a time in my personal life, and use other calculations and considerations when planning at work.


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